If AI really turns out to be a normal technology, what happens to industry structures?

July 18, 2026

If AI really turns out to be normal technology, an increasingly persuasive case Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor have continued to advance, what happens to the competitive dynamics and industry structures for the organisations operating in that space? Using a synthesis of Porter’s Five Forces Framework, Helmer’s Seven Powers and Oberholzer’s Value Stick that I … More If AI really turns out to be a normal technology, what happens to industry structures?

JEC Special Issue on Economic Crime in a Changing World

July 14, 2026

A significantly expanded version of a paper I shared earlier on Privacy Technologies for Financial Intelligence is now published in the Journal of Economic Criminology’s Special Issue on Economic Crime in a Changing World: Emerging Threats and Strategic Responses. The paper is open-access and written for a broad non-technical audience. It can be found here: … More JEC Special Issue on Economic Crime in a Changing World

Belief Acquisition as Stochastic Filtering

June 16, 2026

We have substantially revised the factored conditional filtering paper to frame it more generally as a solution for belief acquisition in AI agents. Here’s the revised paper on arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.02178v3 Here’s the abstract: This paper studies how belief acquisition can be accomplished using stochastic filtering. First, a theoretical foundation for empirical beliefs is outlined. Then … More Belief Acquisition as Stochastic Filtering

Martingale Tests for Model Misspecification in Bayesian Sequence Prediction

May 9, 2026

Using sequential hypothesis testing techniques to check the modelling assumptions of Bayesian mixture estimators is a promising way of getting value out of combining the Bayesian and frequentist approaches to probability. Here’s a paper to show how that can be done for Context Tree Weighting and related methods. Paper Abstract: Universal Bayesian sequence predictors like … More Martingale Tests for Model Misspecification in Bayesian Sequence Prediction

Notes on Conformal Prediction and Testing

February 8, 2026

All my life I have been searching for simple and effective methods for constructing prediction intervals for different AI/ML models. I don’t know why I never encountered Conformal Prediction until recently, but I suppose it is better late than never. Conformal prediction is (arguably) the most elegant and practical technique for improving the robustness in … More Notes on Conformal Prediction and Testing

AI Risk Assessment via Threat Modelling

January 24, 2026

Threat modelling is now considered a best practice in comprehensive technical approaches to dealing with AI safety issues [S+25]. Threat modeling [S14] is a structured, proactive process used to identify potential threats and vulnerabilities in a system. While the traditional focus is on cyber-security and privacy issues, threat modelling has been extended for AI systems … More AI Risk Assessment via Threat Modelling

AI Governance vs AI Assurance

January 6, 2026

AI governance and AI assurance are sometimes conflated in conversations but they are not the same thing. In simple terms, In more details, the AI Governance Framework for an organisation is the strategic blueprint that defines the organisation’s overarching approach to developing, deploying, and managing AI systems. Its purpose is to define the roles, responsibilities, … More AI Governance vs AI Assurance

Book Recommendations on China’s Economic System

December 21, 2025

I read a couple of really good books on China’s economic system this year that I can recommend for those who want to know the country better (from a distance). The New China Playbook: Beyond Socialism and Capitalism by Keyu Jin taught me about mayor economies, and how China’s centrally planned economy is actually executed … More Book Recommendations on China’s Economic System

Thoughts on Prompt Injection Attacks

October 26, 2025

Like many difficult cyber security problems, prompt-injection attacks is likely to become an ongoing issue that shifts and turns with the continual discovery of new attacks and new defences going forward. Instead of responding in natural language given a prompt, the best current defence I know involves always generating code, say, in a safe interpreted … More Thoughts on Prompt Injection Attacks

Customising the Australian Government’s AI Fundamentals Training Course

October 6, 2025

To support public-service agencies in the implementation of their own responsible use of AI policies, the Australian Government’s Digital Transformation Agency (DTA) has made publicly available its AI Fundamentals training course in the form of a SCORM package, a commonly used technical standard for putting together content for Learning Management Systems (LMS). The DTA training … More Customising the Australian Government’s AI Fundamentals Training Course